The opening leg of horse racing’s prestigious Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby, is set to take place this Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. A full field of 20 horses will compete in the annual “Run for the Roses,” each vying for victory in the historic race. The morning-line odds for the contenders have been announced, setting the stage for wagering ahead of post time.
The Morning-Line Favorite: Journalism
Emerging as the morning-line favorite is the colt Journalism, assigned 3-1 odds by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia following last Saturday’s post-position draw. Trained by Michael McCarthy, Journalism enters the Derby on a winning streak, having secured victories in three consecutive graded-stakes races: the Los Alamitos Futurity Stakes in December, the San Felipe Stakes in March, and the Santa Anita Derby last month.
McCarthy commented on the broader impact of the favorite’s run, noting that his community in Altadena, Southern California, was affected by wildfires earlier this year and expressing hope that “for a couple hours on Saturday, we can provide them a little bit of entertainment.”
Full List of Horses and Morning-Line Odds
Here is the field of 20 horses set to run in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, listed by their post position number with their initial morning-line odds (note: odds are subject to change based on betting):
- Citizen Bull, 20-1
- Neoequos, 30-1
- Final Gambit, 30-1
- American Promise, 30-1
- Admire Daytona, 30-1
- Luxor Café, 15-1
- Journalism, 3-1
- Burnham Square, 12-1
- Grande, 20-1
- Flying Mohawk, 30-1
- East Avenue, 20-1
- Publisher, 20-1
- Tiztastic, 20-1
- Render Judgment, 30-1
- Coal Battle, 30-1
- Sandman, 6-1
- Sovereignty, 5-1
- Chunk of Gold, 30-1
- Owen Almighty, 30-1
- Baeza, 12-1 (Entered due to scratch)
(Note: Horse originally scheduled for Post 4, Rodriguez, was scratched)
Key Contenders and Their Recent Form
Beyond the favorite, several other horses are considered strong contenders based on their morning-line odds and recent performances. Sovereignty, with 5-1 odds, heads to Louisville after finishing second in March’s Florida Derby and securing wins earlier that month in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and in October’s Street Sense Stakes. Sandman, listed at 6-1, won the Arkansas Derby in March, adding to earlier placings of third in the Rebel Stakes (February) and second in the Southwest Stakes (January).
Burnham Square, assigned 12-1 odds, is another horse to watch, having won last month’s Blue Grass Stakes in Kentucky and the Holy Bull Stakes in February. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who rode Mystik Dan to victory in last year’s dramatic Derby, will be aboard Burnham Square this year.
Notable Scratches and Additions
The Kentucky Derby field saw a change late in the week. Rodriguez, winner of last month’s Wood Memorial Stakes in New York and initially drawing the No. 4 post, was scratched from the race on Thursday. Co-owner Tom Ryan cited a “small but slightly sensitive foot bruise” requiring rest. This scratch allowed Baeza, the next eligible horse, to enter the field. Baeza, a bay colt with 12-1 morning-line odds, previously finished second behind the favorite, Journalism, in the Santa Anita Derby. Rodriguez is now expected to target the Preakness Stakes later this month.
Trainer Spotlight: Bob Baffert’s Return
The scratch of Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert, means Baffert will enter the starting gate with one horse this year, Citizen Bull. Baffert is returning to the Kentucky Derby after serving a three-year suspension from Churchill Downs following the disqualification of his horse, Medina Spirit, from the 2021 Derby due to a failed post-race drug test.
Citizen Bull is listed among the horses with 20-1 morning-line odds. His wins include the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (February), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (November), and American Pharoah Stakes (October), along with a fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby behind Journalism.
Other colts also listed at 20-1 morning-line odds are East Avenue, Grande, Publisher, and Tiztastic.
International Qualifiers
Two horses in the field qualified for the Derby from outside the United States. Luxor Café (15-1 odds) earned his spot through wins in Japan’s Fukuryu Stakes (March) and Hyacinth Stakes (February). Admire Daytona (30-1 odds) qualified by winning the UAE Derby in the United Arab Emirates last month and also ran fourth in Japan’s Hyacinth Stakes in February.
Recent Derby History Provides Context
Looking back at recent history, the last time the morning-line favorite won the Kentucky Derby was in 2018 with Justify, who went on to win the Triple Crown. Last year’s race provided a thrilling finish, with Mystik Dan (who had 20-1 morning-line odds that shortened to 18-1) winning by a nose in a rare three-horse photo finish.
Mystik Dan launched from the No. 3 post, the same position assigned to Final Gambit (30-1 odds) this year. Final Gambit is part of a group of nine horses with long-shot odds of 30-1, including Admire Daytona, American Promise, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, Flying Mohawk, Neoequos, Owen Almighty, and Render Judgment. Final Gambit previously won Kentucky’s Jeff Ruby Steaks in March.
Understanding Eligibility and Odds
The Kentucky Derby field has been limited to 20 horses since 1975. Most horses earn their eligibility by accumulating points in designated races across the United States held since last September. The morning-line odds provide an initial forecast from the oddsmaker, but the actual odds at post time will reflect the betting public’s wagers, potentially shifting significantly before the race begins.
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